Posted 24 February 2012 - 02:57 PM
BAFL : CY11 Result Preview
Bank Alfalah Ltd (BAFL) is scheduled to announce its full-year CY11 result on Thursday Mar 1'12. On an unconsolidated basis, we expect BAFL to post NPAT of PkR4.05bn (EPS: PkR3.00) in CY11 against NPAT of PkR0.97bn (EPS: PkR0.72) in CY10, translating into exceptional growth of 4.2xYoY. We expect the bank to announce a cash dividend of PkR1.0/share alongside the result. In this regard, while BAFL has posted a 4Q loss in each of the last 3yrs, we expect the bank to buck the trend this year and post NPAT of PkR1.04bn (EPS: PkR0.77) in 4QCY11. This is despite the bank likely taking a hit of PkR672mn on its Agritech exposure and not resorting to further FSV benefit. As such, we believe the bank has firmly turned the corner where we see sustainable improvement in core operating metrics including NIMs, credit costs and cost/income, all leading to higher ROE. Key highlights of CY11E results are expected to be
1) robust 27%YoY NII growth on higher NIMs,
2) 50%YoY decline in loan provisions,
3) 18%YoY growth in non-interest income and
4) relatively contained 9%YoY increase in admin expenses. Upside risk to estimates stems from a potential lower tax charge in 4QCY11 to balance out an effective tax rate of 37.3% in 9MCY11.
Having gained 23%CYTD, BAFL trades at a CY12F P/B of 0.7x and P/E of 5.0x. While our target price of PkR13.75/share implies a Neutral stance, we will look to revisit our investment case post release of detailed CY11 accounts.
(AKD)