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Market in Martial Law & Emergency



10 replies to this topic

#1
Muhammed Jawed

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    Asalamo Alaikum,

    I am starting a new topic "Market in Martial Law & Emergency"

    Please share your views if Martial Law or Emergency is imposed then market ka
    kiya haal hoga???

    Yesterday Peer Saheb Pagara told:
    The Martial Law should have been imposed long ago and
    I am surprised why the same has been delayed yet," he
    said while addressing a press conference at his
    residence "Kingri House" on Thursday.

    I think market will be under 10K.... :unsure:

    Seniors are requested to share the past records what was the
    reaction of KSE when Martial or Emergency was imposed in Pakistan.

    Duniya Fani, Duniya Fani, Duniya Fani ALLAH Baqi
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    Happy Moments Praise ALLAH...................
    Difficult Moments Seek ALLAH.................
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    Painful Moments Trust ALLAH..................
    MOMENT BY MOMENT SHUKAR ALLAH AL-HAMDOLILLAH.


    #2
    mkshoaib

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    i think market will go down badly

    #3
    Sid2

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    It all depends on whether it is a "successful" martial law or "unsuccessful" martial law. :unsure:

    I mean to say, if the martial law is successful in quelling political disturbances, then the market will definitely go up. On the other hand, if the martial law is not successful & political protests intensify, then the market will go down.

    The market loves certainty & hates uncertainty, so initially it would go down when things are uncertain, but if things become certain at some point, then it will go into bull mode.

    I don't have any information about the KSE reaction in past martial laws (I'm not that old :letsparty:) but from the books I read about the Western stock market, the cases dealt with were wars & assassinations (no martial law there, obviously :achay:).

    In the case of the first world war, the US bhai loog got so scared that they closed the market for 6 months. But when it finally opened, but still in the middle of a war, there was massive bullishness.

    In the case of the second world war, it initially took a dip, but then quickly stabilised & when it becamse clear that the US was going to win, it went into a bull run. On the other hand, the German & Japanese stock markets crashed almost to zero, when it was clear the countries were going to lose & be occupied (which is the ultimate in an uncertain situation).

    In the cases of presidential assassinations, there is an initial dip for 1 or 2 days, but when the Vice President takes charge and things become clear, then it quickly recovers.

    #4
    Sid2

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    Another case I read about was the UK stock market during the time when the pound sterling was forced out of the Euro-zone.

    The John Major government of that time had been committed to making sure the pound joined the Euro. However, to do this they needed to keep the pound trading within a certain range against other European currencies.

    The market speculators felt that the pound looked to be weak & started their attacks. Initially, the Government tried to resist by hiking interest rates to stop the pound being devalued. During this time (of uncertainty) the stock market went down.

    Finally, the Government decided that the whole thing was a lost cause & not to join the Euro. Things were now suddenly certain, with interest rates returning to normal levels, and the stock market took a sharp upward swing & became positive.

    #5
    AbDuLmAtEeNkHaN

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    #6
    Sid2

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    One thing I can comment on as a "senior" is Pir Pagara. I am sufficiently "senior" :unsure: to remember a few of his past beyaan during the 1990's, and I can assure you that the guy is treated as some sort of Oracle, but his record of correctly predicting the future course of events is no better than any other politician.

    Also, he is not sufficiently high-up in the present set-up to know any "inside information" about what is being discussed & planned at the "highest levels".






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