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Stock Market Opening and Closing Notes

Stock Market Opening Notes Closing Notes

628 replies to this topic

#625 Amin Khan

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    Posted 19 May 2012 - 03:03 PM

    KSE index closes below 14,000-point level as selling continues
    our correspondent
    Saturday, May 19, 2012

    KARACHI: The Karachi share market remained under pressure on Friday and closed below the 14,000-point level as investors squared their positions ahead of the federal budget.

    Khurram Schehzad, Head of Research at InvestCap said that it was a normal routine as market participants opted for profit taking ahead of the budget.

    “As the budget announcement comes closer the uncertainty increases and investors are adopting a wait and see policy.”

    The KSE-100 share index lost 205.30 points or 1.46 percent to close at 13,857.78 points. KSE 30-share index shed 293.38 points or 2.39 percent to end at 11980.80 points.

    Shares of 340 companies were traded out of which 76 scrips advanced, 202 declined and 62 remained unchanged.

    Samar Iqbal, an analyst at Topline Securities, said that huge fall in international markets affected Karachi stock exchange also.

    “Across-the-board selling was seen as more than 200 companies’ shares price fell. DGKC with volume of 12.6million shares closed at its 5 percent lower circuit breaker. Investors booked profits due to fear that bearish trend in global markets may result in more foreign selling.”

    The market capitalization declined to Rs3.539 trillion compared with Rs3.593 trillion a day earlier.

    Dealers said that the market was in a consolidating phase as it always happened before the announcement of the federal budget. Analysts said that uncertainty prevailed in the market as reports and rumours suggested the upcoming budget would have high impact on the stock market and added that after the announcement things would stabilize. The ready market volumes stood at 175.707 million shares as compared to 143.055 million shares traded in the last trading session.

    Highest volumes were witnessed in LOTPTA with trades of 22.379 million shares. The scrip lost 71 paisas to close at Rs8.52. It was followed by PTCL with 16.409 million shares. It shed 10 paisas to end at Rs15.49. JSCL was the third with trades of 16.351 million shares. It gained 63 paisas to finish at Rs16.57.
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    #626 Amin Khan

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    Posted 19 May 2012 - 03:10 PM

    Market watch: Bourse follows global peers downward
    By Our Correspondent
    Published: May 19, 2012
    KSE’s benchmark 100-share index plummets 205 points.
    KARACHI: The stock exchange followed its global peers downward and with it went below the 14,000 points psychological barrier on Friday.

    Asian shares tumbled and were set for their worst weekly showing since September on Friday amid signs of growing instability among Spanish banks and political turmoil in Greece. Meanwhile, European shares also weakened and closed at their lowest level since November.

    The Karachi Stock Exchange’s (KSE) benchmark 100-share index plummeted 1.46 per cent or 205.30 points to end at the 13,857.78 point level.

    Foreign institutional investors were net sellers of Rs105 million worth of shares, according to data maintained by the National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited.

    Major blue chips underwent massive selling with oil stocks taking the major battering albeit with low volumes amid declining international oil prices. Pakistan Petroleum dipped 2.1%, followed by Oil and Gas Development Company & Pakistan Oilfields declining 1.2% & 1.9%, respectively.

    Local investor sentiments could not even be lifted on news of improvements in Pak-US relationship and expected reopening of NATO supply, said Samar Iqbal Equity Dealer Topline Securities.

    DG Khan Cement closed at its lower limit while Lucky Cement closed down 3.4% as rumours are making round that price consensus among manufacturers will break which could potentially lead to price wars in near future, said JS Global Capital analyst Jawad Khan.

    Among banks, United Bank closed at its daily lower limit while MCB Bank dipped 2.5% despite recent assurance by the finance minister that the government is not considering increasing taxes in the upcoming budget.

    Trade volumes gained to 176 million shares compared with Thursday’s tally of 143 million shares.

    Shares of 344 companies were traded on the last trading session of the week. At the end of the day 76 stocks closed higher, 202 declined while 66 remained unchanged. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs5.16 billion.

    Lotte Pakistan PTA was the volume leader with 22.38 million shares declining Rs0.71 to finish at Rs8.52. It was followed by PTCL with 16.41 million shares descending Re0.1 to close at Rs15.49 and Jahangir Siddiqui and Company with 16.35 million shares increasing Rs0.63 to close at Rs16.57.
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    #627 Amin Khan

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    Posted Yesterday, 10:42 AM

    KSE-100
    The index is currently facing selling pressure and is trading on a short term negative note. On the last trading day of the week it breached the 14k level and it closed at 13857.78. It was down by 205.30 points with 129m traded volume. The recent Bull Run has exhausted making intraday high at 14706.36 and since then it is on a downward trend. The equity market has violated substantial support level 0f 13890. Investors are advised to remain cautious and don’t rush for going long. Next important level is 13570 on the downside. The index might see a pullback but that should be treated as an opportunity to exit. Remain on Cash!
    (IIS)


    MARKET COMMENTARY
    Market again witnessed a black day as index broke all its support levels and closed at 13,857. NATO supply resumption issues between Pak – US forced investors to book gains on last trading of the week. Foreigners were net sellers with outflow of US$1.17 mn. We recommend investors to remain sideline as Index support level is 18,760-765 if its breached then further downside to 13,550-575 cannot be ruled out. However slight bounce back can be seen but a chance for investors to sell the stocks.
    (IIS)

    =============

    The Burj Beacon
    Economy
    The US House of Representatives has rejected an amendment that sought to ban all military and economic aid to Pakistan. However, it has endorsed another amendment that links aid to the reopening of Nato supply routes. In related news, President Asif Ali Zardari has pressed the United States during a Nato meeting to help find a permanent solution to US drone strikes that have fueled tensions between the two countries. The President also called for the US to do more to make amends for the deaths of 24 Pakistani soldiers killed in Nov’11 by US aircraft along the border with Afghanistan. Pakistan has demanded a high-level apology for the incident, which the White House has resisted so far.

    The issuance of PkR82bn Privately Placed Term Finance Certificates (PPTFCs) to resolve the circular debt issue of the energy sector was reportedly not discussed in a meeting of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) held on May 15’12, despite directives by President Zardari.

    The country’s services trade deficit widened to US$2.34bn in 10MFY12, an increase of 92%YoY. The increase owes primarily to high imports and a slowdown in exports. In that regard, services exports registered a decline of US$816mn to stand at US$4.101bn while services imports registered an increase of US$306mn to stand at US$6.448bn in 10MFY12.

    Finance Minister Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh has stated that considerable relief would be given to the public in the next federal budget (2012-2013) while the Federal Excise Duty (FED) would be gradually phased out over the two upcoming federal budgets.

    Oil and Gas
    The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) has approved reduction of up to PkR47.52/mmbtu in consumer gas sale price effective Jul 01’2012. The decrease primarily owes to change in projected sale mix and increase in revenue at current prescribed prices for Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Limited (SNGPL) and Sui Southern Gas Pipeline Limited (SSGC).

    The government is likely to set the target for petroleum levy on oil products at PkR120bn for FY13, which is the same as fixed for the current year. Though this year the target was the same, but it may not be met due to a reduction in the levy to mitigate the impact of high global oil prices. At present, the government is collecting PkR11.84/litre on high octane blending component, PkR8.86/litre on petrol, PkR4.20 on high speed diesel, PkR5.15 on kerosene oil and PkR3 on light diesel oil.

    Cements
    The government is likely to cut Federal Excise Duty (FED) on cement up to PkR250/ton in the upcoming budget for FY13, according to sources in the cement industry. Currently, the cement sector is paying FED of PkR500/ton, which comes out to PkR25/bag.
    (BCPL)

    =============

    Technical Spotlight
    The KSE-100 pressure continues amidst consective negative week on week closing. The index shed 373 points for the week with a support level at around 13,800 (23.6%) from there the market may rebound but resistance is intact at 14,135. We recommend to sell on strength and stay sideline.
    Pivot Point : 13,936.
    Support: 13,766 and 13,673.
    Resistance: 14,029 and 14,199.
    Recommendation: We recommend investors to stay sideline and wait for market to decide its direction.
    (Taurus)

    =============

    KSE-100: Weekly formation suggests weaknesss to continue

    The index has closed below its 10-week moving average on the weekly charts. This is bearish and suggests further weakness.

    The Stochastic Oscillator has reversed and has regenerated a Sell signal on the daily chart, while the RSI has generated a sell on the weekly chart.

    Maintain a cautious stance on the market and suggest Selling on strength.
    (KASB)

    =============

    Bulls likely to find support

    The KSE100 came down another 205.3 points or 1.46% to close at 13,857.78. Market participation surged to clock in at 129.293 million shares - up by 25% compared to the previous session. With immediate support at 23.6% Fib retracement (13,777.65) and 50EMA (13,783.75) bulls are likely to find support. Upside is likely to face resistance at 14,151.79 (20EMA).

    OGDC (vwap – 159.24) continues to remain under pressure as it closed at 158.28. Next support is 153.77 (200EMA). Wait for the price to find bottom.

    POL (vwap – 363.42) came down another 1.9% to close at 363.25 amidst increasing turn over. Immediate support is 360 (trend line support). For those who sold on move below 370.75 set your stop loss at 364. Recommended for covering shorts and bottom fishing.

    NBP (vwap – 44.59) came down 2.03% amidst thin turn over. For those who sold on move past 44.75 set your stop loss at 45.50.

    PSO (vwap – 253.94) came down 2.47% amidst high turn over to close at 253.20. For those who sold on close below 256 set your stop loss at 259.75.

    FFC (vwap – 116.58) closed just above its 76.4% Fib support at 115.92. Wait for the formation to evolve.

    ENGRO (vwap -99.58) witnessed another round of selling pressure to close at 98.73. Next support is at 95.18 (200SMA). Sell on close below 95.

    EFOODS (vwap – 65.30) rallied to close up 1.88% at 64.75. Next resistance is 67 (23.6% Fib retracement). For those who took positions on move past 65.90 can set their stop loss at 62.90.

    MCB (vwap – 170.97) came down 2.51% to close at 169.99. For those who sold on close below 173 set your stop loss at 174.50.

    DGKC (vwap – 41.06) came down 4.37% amidst a volatile session. Immediate resistance is 20 EMA at 42.58. Next support is 50EMA (38.81). Wait for the formation to evolve further.
    (BMA)

    =============

    Temporary Cushion Expected Around 23.6% Retracement

    The benchmark KSE slid 372.7 points or 2.61% last week to settle at 13857.78 level —easing lower for the second straight week, with an average turnover of 108.8mn shares (decreased 47.5%) against 207.3mn shares changed hands a week earlier.

    Post violation of a short-term up trendline, the downwards pressure is expected to neutralize as the index approaches 13841~13765 area (see Friday’s issue), coinciding with the 23.6% retracement (13777) of Jan’12 to May’12 rise (10771~14706). Said support can potentially allow an upwards relief towards 14120 level. However, despite such a breather we’d prefer to maintain a cautious stance given that the index has interrupted its bullish peak & trough progression. Furthermore, the weekly momentum data (STS and RSI) has turned negative.
    (AKD)

    =============

    Strategy: On technical ground, resistance levels to overcome for the day are 13,903, 13,945 and 13,995. On the contrary, immediate support levels are defined at around 14,799, 13,773 and 13,690 marks respectively. The index registered a lower high and a lower low on daily as well as on weekly basis, which indicates the bearish momentum, is likely to continue. The RSI on weekly chart has now generated a Sell signal and on daily basis maintains its downtrend, which suggests further downside moves for the index. The Stochastic Oscillator on daily chart is in oversold region, which indicates a short-term pull back for the index however on weekly charts maintains its downtrend indicating that overall scenario is in favor of Bears. The index strongly closed below its 30 days EMA on daily basis & on weekly basis marginally closed below 10-weeks moving average which indicates that Bears are in stronger position to lead the market. Any downside from here would find immediate
    support by the lower level of the Bollinger Band which is currently stalling at 13,773 and strong move below would reflect the selling pressure towards the range of 13,595 – 13,545. Since the benchmark index is already trading below its short term moving averages any pull back is likely to face strong resistance from the moving averages lies in the band of 14,050 – 14,100 & later on 14,230 – 14,300. We recommend our investors to stick with the strategy of Sell or Sell on Strength in a broader perspective or Buy for Trade in selected stocks with strictly defined risk level (intra-day setups only).
    (FNEL)

    =============

    Market Overview
    The market plunged on Friday amidst selling pressure. The KSE-100 Index shed 215 points to close at 13,858 on the back of 176m shares being traded. Activity was mainly concentrated in the Chemicals, Commercial Banks and Construction & materials sectors. The top gainers according to Index points were BYCO, EFOOD and PICT; likewise the top decliners were OGDC, PPL and UBL.
    We recommend investors to Sell on Strength.
    (Taurus)

    =============

    Review: The KSE index remained depressed during last week losing 373pts to 13,858pts with low turnover. The depress sentiment put presure on index as market lose physiological level of 14,000pts during the last day of the week, this indicates increasing supply near this level with expected selling pressure. Strategy: 13,935pts is the pivot for the day: The index above 14,000pts may attract buying interest towards projected 14,300pts. However, as bearish trend prevail in the market, closing below 13,765 levels confirm downward trend towards 13,553 levels. Be cautious below this level.
    (InvestCap)
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    #628 Amin Khan

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    Posted Yesterday, 12:42 PM

    Market Outlook
    We recommend investors to take positions in fundamentally strong scrips trading at cheaper multiples with a staggered buying approach.
    (AF)
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    #629 Amin Khan

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    Posted Yesterday, 06:06 PM

    Pakistan Market Wrap ‐ Pre BUDGET MOOD !!
    KSE100 index wandered along the neutral line on volumes that stood at half of fridays turnover on lack of interest from both local and foreign investors. Anxiety over on going US‐PAK egotiations to restore NATO supplies kept investors at bay and momentum at hold. Volumes were mainly in Second and Third tier stocks baring ENGRO PA that closed positive on reported foreign buying.

    We expect market to remain lackluster as budget, NATO supply issue and lack of any major participation by foreigners' would keep locals to the sidelines. However, any slide would likely induce buying in laggard Oils specifically POL, PPL and IPPs HUBCO, KAPCO given their attractive dividend yield.
    (Elixir)

    View from the Desk
    KSE-100 index closed with marginal gain of 0.1% after a lackluster trading session. Volumes remained low & were down 54% as major local institutions are weighing statements coming from the meetings between Pakistan & NATO leadership regarding the opening of NATO supply route
    to Afghanistan. Major development & military assistance to Pakistan is dependent on the success of the ongoing talks with the US & the NATO, & any positive development will bode well for local market sentiment. Cement stocks witnessed some buying interest at lower levels over news that the FED is likely to be reduced by Rs.250/ton, while E&P stocks witnessed low volumes but gained marginally over news that Petroleum Policy 2012 is likely to be implemented in June.
    (InvestCap)
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