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Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM)

Large Scale Manufacturing LSM

4 replies to this topic

#1
Amin Khan

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    Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM)

    Manufacturing picks up growth amid higher industrial production (+11%MoM)

    The large scale manufacturing (LSM) picked up growth in Jan-12 as the industrial manufacturing index rose to 135.9 (+8.22%MoM growth impact) translating into a 8%MoM rise. However despite the impressive monthly growth the 7MFY12 overall rise in index was a mere 1.26%YoY, over same period last year.

    Manufacturing mainly driven by consumer durables
    The provincial Bureau of Statistics which is used as proxy for consumer durables rose by ~3%YoY during 7MFY12, compared to industrial production gauged by Ministry of Industries (MoI) which grew by a mere ~0.9%YoY. Given its higher weightage, the overall impact of consumption based goods on growth inched up by 0.7% compared to 0.6% from industrial production. The overall impact of oil based products reduced to ~0.1%YoY.

    It seems that the domestic consumption continues to feed in...
    The consumer durables cycle continues to show a monthly declining trending, down by ~0.9%MoM or by 8% YoY. We believe that this is largely due to a slowdown in domestic consumption as a result of higher inflation.

    Manufacturers are far more upbeat than consumers
    On the flip side, industrial production seems to be gaining momentum and is up by ~11%MoM or ~7%YoY. The rebound is reflected in part by the severity of the preceding decline, which has been a drag on the manufacturing sector due to supply constraints – power shortages and gas curtailment. The problem hasn’t been sorted out as yet, and we foresee the issue to prevail in the long-term. Nevertheless, it may also be argued that these constraints and higher input cost have lifted the manufacturing output prices which, is resulting in a misleading figure. Or, it may simply is adhering to its previous cyclical trends.

    Major index lifters
    Impact wise the food and beverage lead the growth causing an overall cumulative impact of 1.5%YoY. The trend may be reflective of falling domestic food prices which have increased consumption. Nevertheless weightage wise, the textile sector saw a mere 0.03%MoM rise owing to falling cotton prices, this brought about a 0.3% growth impact.

    Major index draggers
    Production of Steel and iron was down by 20%MoM during the Jan-12, which was followed by engineering products (down by 14%MoM). Although fertilizers sector saw monthly rise of ~19.5%MoM, the sector’s output was down by ~1.4%FY12TD.
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    #2
    Mansoor

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    Large scale manufacturing index grew by 3.3% in 11MFY15

    · As per the data released by PBS (Pakistan Bureau of Statistics), growth of Large Scale Manufacturing sector (52% of Industrial sector, 10.6% of GDP) remained at 3.3% in 11MFY15 compared to 4.3% in SPLY.


    · The growth remained slow as production of Food sector fell by 1.1% due to substitution of domestic production of edible cooking oil with imports and lower sugar production. Paper & board and Textiles also underperformed due to closure of a large chipboard plant and weak exports of cotton yarn.


    · Positively, automobile production and Iron & Steel industry witnessed healthy growth of 21.6% and 36.6%, respectively.

    · During May’15, LSM growth was up 5.9% YoY, thanks to Automobile, Iron & Steel, Pharmaceuticals and petroleum production.


    However, on month on month basis, the LSM index declined by 4.8%.

    · For FY15, we expect LSM growth to remain at 3.5%, lower than the Govt. target of 4.0% in FY15 and 4.0% in FY14.


    · For FY16, LSM growth is expected to remain between 4-4.5% due to absence of negative effects of lower palm oil prices, late sugar production and closure of chipboard plant.




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    #3
    Malik.

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    Large scale manufacturing posts 3.3 % growth in FY15  Pakistan’s large scale manufacturing (LSM) sector posted a growth of 3.3 % during the last fiscal year of 2014/15 over the preceding year, official data showed on Wednesday.The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) said textile sector, which has a high value in LSM index, inched up 0.53 % while the fertiliser sector was up 1.1 %Wood production plunged 74 percent in July-June FY15. Engineering sector dropped 18.28 % paper and board 9.86 % and food and beverages and tobacco production fell 1.09 %Economists said growth in general sales tax collection at domestic stage in FY15, which indicates industrial activities, has been almost one percent and if the inflation is adjusted it will turn negative.Domestic demand is low owing to this and private sector’s borrowing from banks is also minimal as the sector is reluctant to make new investments in expanding their businesses.Analysts said Pakistan’s economy is slowing down despite the government’s claims of controlling energy crisis, improving law and order situation and political stability.LSM fell 3.98 % in FY14 and 4.28 % in FY13.In June 2015, however, the manufacturing sector expanded 3.8 % over the same month last year, while it shrank 3.8 % over May 2015. The International Monetary Fund is presenting good reviews of the country’s economy, Moody’s and other rating agencies are upgrading its ratings and international publications are carrying encouraging notes.LSM, contributing 10.6 % to the economy, has backward and forward linkage with other industries and services and transport sectors.Pakistan’s manufacturing sector grew at an average rate of eight percent from the 60s to 80s, but fell to 3.9 % during the 90s.The plunge was mainly due to reduction in investment for lack of continuity and consistency in policies. The PBS computes the quantum index numbers of LSM on the basis of latest production data of 112 items received from various sources, including the Oil Companies Advisory Committee, Ministry of Industries and Production and provincial bureau of statistics.The OCAC supplied the data of 11 items, registering 0.37 % expansion in July-June 2014/15.The production ministry recorded data of 36 items, exhibiting a growth of 1.53 % and provincial bureaus of statistics, providing data for 65 items, registered an expansion of 1.41 %Production of iron and steel increased 35.4 % automobiles 23.56 % chemicals 8.4 % pharmaceuticals 7.5 % leather products 7.1 % electronics 5.6 % coke and petroleum products 0.78 % and non-metallic mineral products production 2.13 % during the period under review. (The News August 20, 2015)

    #4
    Mansoor

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    Subdued LSM growth in Jan’17

    Ø Large Scale Manufacturing Index (LSMI) posted an increase of 3.48% cumulatively for 7MFY17 compared to CPLY.


    Ø High-weight components recorded subdued growth except for Iron and Steel Products index which is up by 28.02%YoY in Jan’17 and 17.46%YoY in 7MFY17 followed by Engineering Products which increased by 27.69%YoY in Jan’17.


    Ø All the low weight components posted cumulative declining growth in 7MFY17.


    Ø Materialization of CPEC, PSDP spending and improved power availability should expectantly bode well for the LSMI in the future.



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    #5
    Moon20

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    Moon Textile Industries has been in the lawn manufacturing business for over 30 years now. This makes us one of the most experienced and long standing companies among the lawn salwar kameez manufacturing scenario of Pakistan. We stay on top of our game by keeping in touch with every segment of market form, from lower class to upper middle class to upper class. It is our goal and passion to make affordable clothing of good quality be available to all the masses of Pakistan and that is the precise reason why we pay so much attention Stitched & Unstitched Indian & Pakistani lawn clothes on wholesale basis lawn clothes to catering to each one of the market segments.
    You may more often hear the name of Gul Ahmed, Al Karam Lawn and Asim Jofa lawn etc, but our quality is equal to them in all regards, and not just that, our pricing is actually better than theirs. This is what gives us, Moon Textile, a large advantage over the rest of the market. It is our determination to produce good quality lawn, and yet keep the price ranges affordable for the common buyer. In fact we have options in many price ranges available, so that people can splash out a little more money on the pieces of higher quality if they so wish.






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